It's week 1 of college football and aside from Rice solidifying their spot at the bottom of these rankings with a horrible performance in week 0 (what a stupid name), everyone has a fresh start and is full of optimism.
Best Win - None
Biggest Surprise - None
Biggest Disappointment - Rice had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat one of the worst SWAC programs. It's going to be a long season in Houston.
Games to watch - FAU @ OU; SMU @ UNT; MTSU @ Vanderbilt; Marshall @ Miami. I think these 4 games will tell us a lot about the upcoming season.
1) FAU - Many think this game will be close. I can't see it, but if the Lane Train keeps it close, I could see them squeezing in the Top 25 ahead of their game on 9/21 against #21 UCF. (@ Oklahoma)
2) North Texas - The Mean Green battle metroplex big brother SMU, who they have lost to 3 years in a row. SMU has averaged a nearly 3 TD victory in those 3 Ws. It will be interesting early season matchup for UNT against an experienced coach in Sonny Dykes. (SMU)
3) LA Tech - This is the best G5 matchup for Tech during week 1, IMO. A team with QB concerns and looks out of sorts in the trenches. Tech's strengths are going to be Pass D and O-Line protection. It will be interesting to see how Smith looks early and if the defense is as stifling as we all hope. (at South Alabama)
4) Marshall - Doc Holliday's squad is a dark horse in many ways coming in to the 2018 season. Replacing QB Chase Litton won't be easy, but the Thundering Herd return a plethora of starters from last years 8-5 team that finished a the season 2-4 over their last 6. I'm not sold on Marshall until they show a proven QB, but they recruit as well as anyone in the league. (@ Miami (OH))
5) UAB - UAB returns a vaunted rushing attack lead by sophomore Spencer Brown who averaged over 5 YPC last season. It will interesting to see how this team looks in year 2. Do they take a step forward and return to the mean? S&P looks for them to take a step back and finish with 7 Ws. Another big question will be whether QB AJ Erdely can take advantage of his senior laden receiving corps for a more explosive offense. This is a big year for Clark who will lose 37 seniors following the season. (Savannah State)
6) USM - The Golden Eagles were very much an interesting case of Jekyll & Hyde last season. Rotating QBs and inconsistent play left many wondering who is Southern Miss. FAU stole away the Golden Eagles defensive coordinator so that experience must be replaced, along with significant turnover on the defensive line and secondary. However, in states Oxford, MS. Jack Abraham, former Tech QB, to try and provide a consistent face to lead the offense that they didn't have last year. Hopson is 15-11 at USM and I fully expect the Eagles to be just above .500 this season.(Jackson State)
7) MTSU - MTSU is another team getting plenty of preseason hype, but I just don't see it. Yes, the Blue Raiders return 44 year old Brent Stockstill, but he has shown a propensity for injuries and he lost his #1 receiving target in Richie James to the 49ers. Vanderbilt has taken it to them the last several years and I fully expect the Commodores to run it down their throat again on Saturday. (@ Vanderbilt)
8) FIU - Butch Davis is ahead of schedule at lowly FIU. Last year he went out and out recruited both UCF and FAU he lost to by a combined score of 113-41. Now that is a salesman! Davis doubled their Panthers win total in year one with an experienced team, but was able to flip a culture change in Miami. Davis has been successful in every college stop and I expect FIU to surprise a team or two this year, but also lost one or two they shouldn't. 2019 will be a huge year, but 2018 will be learning year. (Indiana)
9) UTSA - Over-hyped Frank Wilson failed to capitalize on an experienced team in 2018 and get out of San Antonio. Now, the Roadrunners are rebuilding. The offense has been completely retooled and the defense lost their best pass rusher. Wilson's goal needs to be 6 wins with 2 new coordinators in 2018 and look to 2019 for an opportunity at a conference title. (@ Arizona State)
10) WKU - Want to know the impact of the head coach? Look at WKU whose last two coaches are at Florida State, by way of USF and Oregon and Jeff Brohm who instantly went to Purdue and improved the Boilermakers by 4 wins in year 1. Now the Hilltoppers, face a youth movement with an inexperienced coach who feels the pressure from under performing in 2017 with an experienced team. The Tops do benefit from a fairly easy schedule following catching a bad UTEP from the West and Ball State from the MAC. (@ Wisconsin)
11) ODU - ODU returns a plethora of experience this season, albeit youthful experience. ODU managed 5 wins last year despite starting a 17 year old QB much of the season. ODU is my surprise team this year that is currently projected for just 5 wins, but Bobby Wilder seems to find a way with his squads. Both CUSA crossover games come in December and UNT has to come to Norfolk while the Monarchs head to Rice for the final game. I could see this team finding a way to 6 wins and expectations in 2019. (@ Liberty)
12) UTEP - Depth is going to be a huge issue and coming off a year where you went 0-12, that is scary. New Coach, Dana Dimel was lauded as a great hire and he did bring in a JUCO QB that looks scary similar to guys he had success with in Manhattan, but there isn't much to go around him. It's going to be a slow build, but Dimel seems like the right guy for the job. (Northern Arizona)
13) Charlotte - Has there been a worse FBS program? I thought head coach Brad Lambert was gone after 2017, but he is back for one last crack after finishing 1-11 and just 5 wins the last two years. With a brand new program and stadium, you would think the University would be desperate to make a splash, however that has yet to happen. A few more years of this and folks in metro Charlotte will forget the 49ers even exist. (Fordham)
14) Rice - So they won... but Prairie View A&M gave the Owls all they wanted. The Owls are attempting a run at becoming the Stanford of the South. Old school, pro-style smash mouth football that emphasis strong technical play over the more common spread em out and run athletes all over the field. I think Rice is headed for disaster. CUSA is loaded with run and gun offenses that are going to make it difficult for Rice to keep up. It could be a disastrous year in H-Town. (Houston)
Best Win - None
Biggest Surprise - None
Biggest Disappointment - Rice had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat one of the worst SWAC programs. It's going to be a long season in Houston.
Games to watch - FAU @ OU; SMU @ UNT; MTSU @ Vanderbilt; Marshall @ Miami. I think these 4 games will tell us a lot about the upcoming season.
1) FAU - Many think this game will be close. I can't see it, but if the Lane Train keeps it close, I could see them squeezing in the Top 25 ahead of their game on 9/21 against #21 UCF. (@ Oklahoma)
2) North Texas - The Mean Green battle metroplex big brother SMU, who they have lost to 3 years in a row. SMU has averaged a nearly 3 TD victory in those 3 Ws. It will be interesting early season matchup for UNT against an experienced coach in Sonny Dykes. (SMU)
3) LA Tech - This is the best G5 matchup for Tech during week 1, IMO. A team with QB concerns and looks out of sorts in the trenches. Tech's strengths are going to be Pass D and O-Line protection. It will be interesting to see how Smith looks early and if the defense is as stifling as we all hope. (at South Alabama)
4) Marshall - Doc Holliday's squad is a dark horse in many ways coming in to the 2018 season. Replacing QB Chase Litton won't be easy, but the Thundering Herd return a plethora of starters from last years 8-5 team that finished a the season 2-4 over their last 6. I'm not sold on Marshall until they show a proven QB, but they recruit as well as anyone in the league. (@ Miami (OH))
5) UAB - UAB returns a vaunted rushing attack lead by sophomore Spencer Brown who averaged over 5 YPC last season. It will interesting to see how this team looks in year 2. Do they take a step forward and return to the mean? S&P looks for them to take a step back and finish with 7 Ws. Another big question will be whether QB AJ Erdely can take advantage of his senior laden receiving corps for a more explosive offense. This is a big year for Clark who will lose 37 seniors following the season. (Savannah State)
6) USM - The Golden Eagles were very much an interesting case of Jekyll & Hyde last season. Rotating QBs and inconsistent play left many wondering who is Southern Miss. FAU stole away the Golden Eagles defensive coordinator so that experience must be replaced, along with significant turnover on the defensive line and secondary. However, in states Oxford, MS. Jack Abraham, former Tech QB, to try and provide a consistent face to lead the offense that they didn't have last year. Hopson is 15-11 at USM and I fully expect the Eagles to be just above .500 this season.(Jackson State)
7) MTSU - MTSU is another team getting plenty of preseason hype, but I just don't see it. Yes, the Blue Raiders return 44 year old Brent Stockstill, but he has shown a propensity for injuries and he lost his #1 receiving target in Richie James to the 49ers. Vanderbilt has taken it to them the last several years and I fully expect the Commodores to run it down their throat again on Saturday. (@ Vanderbilt)
8) FIU - Butch Davis is ahead of schedule at lowly FIU. Last year he went out and out recruited both UCF and FAU he lost to by a combined score of 113-41. Now that is a salesman! Davis doubled their Panthers win total in year one with an experienced team, but was able to flip a culture change in Miami. Davis has been successful in every college stop and I expect FIU to surprise a team or two this year, but also lost one or two they shouldn't. 2019 will be a huge year, but 2018 will be learning year. (Indiana)
9) UTSA - Over-hyped Frank Wilson failed to capitalize on an experienced team in 2018 and get out of San Antonio. Now, the Roadrunners are rebuilding. The offense has been completely retooled and the defense lost their best pass rusher. Wilson's goal needs to be 6 wins with 2 new coordinators in 2018 and look to 2019 for an opportunity at a conference title. (@ Arizona State)
10) WKU - Want to know the impact of the head coach? Look at WKU whose last two coaches are at Florida State, by way of USF and Oregon and Jeff Brohm who instantly went to Purdue and improved the Boilermakers by 4 wins in year 1. Now the Hilltoppers, face a youth movement with an inexperienced coach who feels the pressure from under performing in 2017 with an experienced team. The Tops do benefit from a fairly easy schedule following catching a bad UTEP from the West and Ball State from the MAC. (@ Wisconsin)
11) ODU - ODU returns a plethora of experience this season, albeit youthful experience. ODU managed 5 wins last year despite starting a 17 year old QB much of the season. ODU is my surprise team this year that is currently projected for just 5 wins, but Bobby Wilder seems to find a way with his squads. Both CUSA crossover games come in December and UNT has to come to Norfolk while the Monarchs head to Rice for the final game. I could see this team finding a way to 6 wins and expectations in 2019. (@ Liberty)
12) UTEP - Depth is going to be a huge issue and coming off a year where you went 0-12, that is scary. New Coach, Dana Dimel was lauded as a great hire and he did bring in a JUCO QB that looks scary similar to guys he had success with in Manhattan, but there isn't much to go around him. It's going to be a slow build, but Dimel seems like the right guy for the job. (Northern Arizona)
13) Charlotte - Has there been a worse FBS program? I thought head coach Brad Lambert was gone after 2017, but he is back for one last crack after finishing 1-11 and just 5 wins the last two years. With a brand new program and stadium, you would think the University would be desperate to make a splash, however that has yet to happen. A few more years of this and folks in metro Charlotte will forget the 49ers even exist. (Fordham)
14) Rice - So they won... but Prairie View A&M gave the Owls all they wanted. The Owls are attempting a run at becoming the Stanford of the South. Old school, pro-style smash mouth football that emphasis strong technical play over the more common spread em out and run athletes all over the field. I think Rice is headed for disaster. CUSA is loaded with run and gun offenses that are going to make it difficult for Rice to keep up. It could be a disastrous year in H-Town. (Houston)
