(warning 1: this is a long post)
(warning 2: this is hypothetical)
I didn't want to bog up the main realignment thread with this many hypotheticals and conjecture, so here ya go. You have been warned.
I'm warning you again. You've now been warned twice.
Still with me? Let's roll.
Stage whatever of grief is acceptance, right? To that end, let's talk about the absolute worst case, nuclear, bottom-falling-out scenarios Tech could find itself in over the next few years. Let's call it the backstop or floor of outcomes that can happen. If anything above and beyond these scenarios happen, then great! But if not, what exactly does bad look like? Let's check it out.
All scenarios assume that ODU, Marshall and USM go to the SBC (which seems to be crystalizing according to the tea leaves - again this is all a worst-case assumption).
The "So This Is What UMass Feels Like" Scenario (Badness Rating: 10/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, WKU, ODU, USM
In this scenario the SBC picks WKU, leading to a CUSA that neither JMU nor Liberty are interested in joining. This leaves CUSA at 4 teams (MTSU, Tech, UTEP, FIU) with no ability to backfill to 6.
All buyout money goes away, as does CUSA. It's all been Judy'd. Tech has neither a conference nor the bag. Not great!
What does Tech do?
Football:
Independent, with a scheduling alliance with UTEP, NMSU, Liberty, FIU, MTSU, UMass and UConn.
That's 7 games. You would play a 3rd P5 money game at ~$1m to make up for the lost TV revenue. Then either two G5 home-and-homes, or one along with an FCS game. Go look at NMSU or UMass's current schedule to get a sense for what this looks like.
Example schedule: Home against UTEP, Liberty, MTSU, UConn, North Texas, FCS. Away against NMSU, FIU, UMass, Miss State, Arkansas, TCU
Major issue is the lack of a bowl tie-in.
Olympic Sports:
Three options in priority order -
Missouri Valley (notables: Loyola Chicago, Missouri State, Drake)
ASUN (notables: Liberty, FGCSU, Bellarmine)
and, oh hell yes,
WAC (notables: SFA, Grand Canyon, NMSU)
I pick the WAC because I like nostalgia, can dust off my old gear, it has some drivable games and UTEP would join also. It's not wretched basketball.
The "ESPN Orders the Code Red" Scenario (Badness Rating: 10/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, JMU ODU, USM
To MAC: MTSU, WKU
Similar to the above, but worse by one team. Same outcomes, but add another G5 home-and-away to the schedule.
(its all uphill from here!)
The "Still CUSA'in, Baybay!" Scenario (Badness Rating: 8/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, JMU, ODU, USM
To CUSA: NMSU, Liberty
Yes, I think Liberty joins this conference. Hear me out when we get to basketball!
Football:
You play the 6 other teams, and you play 2 of them twice home and away. Then the top two play again for a championship.
Yes this is silly as hell, but in football this is simply all about preserving the buyout money and bowl affiliation(s) for 3 years until the next shakeup.
You probably still pick up the 3rd P5 money game to make up for the lost TV revenue stream.
Example schedule: Home against WKU, Liberty, FIU, UTEP, FCS or regional G5, Away at UTEP, Liberty, NMSU, MTSU, regional G5 or P5, P5, P5
Olympic Sports:
Alright, this is why I said hear me out regarding Liberty. I think you can make this work in the short term, and this is your one and only goal in this new CUSA while you try to ride out the next few years: this can be a good basketball league. Not great, but good.
CUSA adds (non-football):
Florida Gulf Coast
Winthrop
You approach SFA but they may say no given their WAC ambitions in football, so let's hold our nose a bit and pick the newly available Little Rock
Olympic Travel partners:
Liberty, Winthrop
FIU, FGCU
WKU, MTSU
Tech, Little Rock
UTEP, NMSU
That is a salty basketball league with 6+ traditionally very strong teams and I would think the NMSU competition would push UTEP to (re)make an effort. FIU and MTSU are the RPI killers, but at least MTSU has shown a pulse historically. If you get SFA over Little Rock, even better. Everyone has a travel partner to save on costs.
Is it a two bid league? Not immediately, but I do think it has that potential.
If you wanted to do a baseball thing, you could add Dallas Baptist and the newly-free UTA as partners, as well. Hurts basketball though so I didn't.
Lastly, whatever you do on the field/court in this scenario, you kick Judy to the curb and get creative with a TV deal. Get creative in marketing this fun basketball product on a streaming service. Maybe even cater to gamblers by focusing on gambling-relevent advanced statistics as part of the presentation. Just go all in.
So that's it. That's rock bottom. Now take a deep breath, because:
This all only lasts ~3 years, as a few things can and likely will happen in the 2025 timeframe:
Big XII expansion
ACC to 16
MWC expansion
AAC backfill
SBC backfill
And, also remember the WAC's gambit. Around 2025 is when some WAC combination of SHSU, SFA, Tarleton, Rio Grande Valley, Grand Canyon, Dixie St, Southern Utah are probably moving to FBS football.
As part of this massive 2025 shakeup, Tech would find its more medium-to-long term football / sports home. And hey, maybe in the "focus on basketball" CUSA option is a thing that works out.
So, there ya go. Let's all hope the worst doesn't happen and a healthier CUSA sticks or Tech goes to the SBC, but if the worst does go down, 1) Tech will survive and 2) it's only for a few years.
Just focus on Tech and continue with the significant planned investments into sports that are in flight.
(warning 2: this is hypothetical)
I didn't want to bog up the main realignment thread with this many hypotheticals and conjecture, so here ya go. You have been warned.
I'm warning you again. You've now been warned twice.
Still with me? Let's roll.
Stage whatever of grief is acceptance, right? To that end, let's talk about the absolute worst case, nuclear, bottom-falling-out scenarios Tech could find itself in over the next few years. Let's call it the backstop or floor of outcomes that can happen. If anything above and beyond these scenarios happen, then great! But if not, what exactly does bad look like? Let's check it out.
All scenarios assume that ODU, Marshall and USM go to the SBC (which seems to be crystalizing according to the tea leaves - again this is all a worst-case assumption).
The "So This Is What UMass Feels Like" Scenario (Badness Rating: 10/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, WKU, ODU, USM
In this scenario the SBC picks WKU, leading to a CUSA that neither JMU nor Liberty are interested in joining. This leaves CUSA at 4 teams (MTSU, Tech, UTEP, FIU) with no ability to backfill to 6.
All buyout money goes away, as does CUSA. It's all been Judy'd. Tech has neither a conference nor the bag. Not great!
What does Tech do?
Football:
Independent, with a scheduling alliance with UTEP, NMSU, Liberty, FIU, MTSU, UMass and UConn.
That's 7 games. You would play a 3rd P5 money game at ~$1m to make up for the lost TV revenue. Then either two G5 home-and-homes, or one along with an FCS game. Go look at NMSU or UMass's current schedule to get a sense for what this looks like.
Example schedule: Home against UTEP, Liberty, MTSU, UConn, North Texas, FCS. Away against NMSU, FIU, UMass, Miss State, Arkansas, TCU
Major issue is the lack of a bowl tie-in.
Olympic Sports:
Three options in priority order -
Missouri Valley (notables: Loyola Chicago, Missouri State, Drake)
ASUN (notables: Liberty, FGCSU, Bellarmine)
and, oh hell yes,
WAC (notables: SFA, Grand Canyon, NMSU)
I pick the WAC because I like nostalgia, can dust off my old gear, it has some drivable games and UTEP would join also. It's not wretched basketball.
The "ESPN Orders the Code Red" Scenario (Badness Rating: 10/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, JMU ODU, USM
To MAC: MTSU, WKU
Similar to the above, but worse by one team. Same outcomes, but add another G5 home-and-away to the schedule.
(its all uphill from here!)
The "Still CUSA'in, Baybay!" Scenario (Badness Rating: 8/10 Scotty Youngs)
To SBC: Marshall, JMU, ODU, USM
To CUSA: NMSU, Liberty
Yes, I think Liberty joins this conference. Hear me out when we get to basketball!
Football:
You play the 6 other teams, and you play 2 of them twice home and away. Then the top two play again for a championship.
Yes this is silly as hell, but in football this is simply all about preserving the buyout money and bowl affiliation(s) for 3 years until the next shakeup.
You probably still pick up the 3rd P5 money game to make up for the lost TV revenue stream.
Example schedule: Home against WKU, Liberty, FIU, UTEP, FCS or regional G5, Away at UTEP, Liberty, NMSU, MTSU, regional G5 or P5, P5, P5
Olympic Sports:
Alright, this is why I said hear me out regarding Liberty. I think you can make this work in the short term, and this is your one and only goal in this new CUSA while you try to ride out the next few years: this can be a good basketball league. Not great, but good.
CUSA adds (non-football):
Florida Gulf Coast
Winthrop
You approach SFA but they may say no given their WAC ambitions in football, so let's hold our nose a bit and pick the newly available Little Rock
Olympic Travel partners:
Liberty, Winthrop
FIU, FGCU
WKU, MTSU
Tech, Little Rock
UTEP, NMSU
That is a salty basketball league with 6+ traditionally very strong teams and I would think the NMSU competition would push UTEP to (re)make an effort. FIU and MTSU are the RPI killers, but at least MTSU has shown a pulse historically. If you get SFA over Little Rock, even better. Everyone has a travel partner to save on costs.
Is it a two bid league? Not immediately, but I do think it has that potential.
If you wanted to do a baseball thing, you could add Dallas Baptist and the newly-free UTA as partners, as well. Hurts basketball though so I didn't.
Lastly, whatever you do on the field/court in this scenario, you kick Judy to the curb and get creative with a TV deal. Get creative in marketing this fun basketball product on a streaming service. Maybe even cater to gamblers by focusing on gambling-relevent advanced statistics as part of the presentation. Just go all in.
So that's it. That's rock bottom. Now take a deep breath, because:
This all only lasts ~3 years, as a few things can and likely will happen in the 2025 timeframe:
Big XII expansion
ACC to 16
MWC expansion
AAC backfill
SBC backfill
And, also remember the WAC's gambit. Around 2025 is when some WAC combination of SHSU, SFA, Tarleton, Rio Grande Valley, Grand Canyon, Dixie St, Southern Utah are probably moving to FBS football.
As part of this massive 2025 shakeup, Tech would find its more medium-to-long term football / sports home. And hey, maybe in the "focus on basketball" CUSA option is a thing that works out.
So, there ya go. Let's all hope the worst doesn't happen and a healthier CUSA sticks or Tech goes to the SBC, but if the worst does go down, 1) Tech will survive and 2) it's only for a few years.
Just focus on Tech and continue with the significant planned investments into sports that are in flight.
