OFF TOPIC Louisiana Economic Outlook and National Influence

Captain Chunk · Jul 27, 2016

I know this is a sports board...but it affects Louisiana Tech and Louisiana Tech athletics...and every single one of us for that matter.

I had the opportunity to see my friend and everybody's favorite economist Dr. Loren Scott last week. I'm pleased to offer some of his insight as well as a link to his 2016/2017 Louisiana economic outlook...and some national stuff. Unfortunately, I will be unable to replicate his political humor and delivery.

Here are some summary points:

Slowed by rapid increases in regulations and higher tax rates, the U.S. economy will continue its plodding pace of expansion with RGDP averaging 2.6% growth annually.
Inflation will remain in the modest 2.1% range, and minor increases in interest rates can be expected.
We are projecting a rebound in oil prices to $55 in 2016 and $60 in 2017, though enormous uncertainty requires us to place a $30 to $90 a barrel range around those forecasts.
An increase in industrial demand combined with a reduction in supply due to much reduced rig counts, should put upward pressure on natural gas prices, with the price per mmbtu going to $3.50 in 2016 and $3.90 in 2017.
About half of the $125.1 billion in announced projects are under construction and about half are at the FEED and permitting stage. Viability of the FEED group is threaten by the EPA (1) lowering ozone standards in the U.S. and (2) imposing the Clean Power Plan that will radically raise industrial utility rates.

An overarching theme that I heard him restate over and over in his presentation regarding the US economy...EUROPEAN GROWTH RATES. I bet he said it a dozen times. He said the reason this recovery has been so dismal compared to the Reagan recovery is lack of deregulation as seen under Reagan. He also stated that this is something Bush should have to answer for also. However, the difference between the Bush and Obama regulatory policies is that the Obama administration has enacted 43% more "major rules" - defined as one projected to cost the economy $100million plus to implement. Across 7 recessions from 1961-2001, the country has averaged a 22.2% RGDP recovery. For the 2009 recession we are sitting at 11.4%. Read his report for much more detail and graphs...he admittedly loves graphs.

Then, if you want to understand exactly what has been, is, and will happen with oil and natural gas pricing and the politics behind it, you should read this report.

This link is safe:
http://theind.com/file-31-.pdf

olddog75 · Jul 27, 2016