After listening to Cumbie’s recent post-game interviews and press conferences where he has said we are “better internally”, “turning a corner”, and “much improved,” I decided it was time for him to be fact-checked. I created a spreadsheet with 26 different statistics comparing our teams for the past 10 years and to compare this year to last year. I did throw out 2020 as everything from 2020 is skewed by the COVID quarantines, etc. What was discovered was fascinating.
Scoring: This year’s offense averages the least points of any team in the past 10 years at 26.73.
First Downs per game: 2nd fewest first downs this season. Last season was the fewest.
Rushing yards per game: has improved by 7.1 per game from last year, but is still 58 yards less than our best season average in 2015.
Pass yards per game: has decreased by 5 yards from last season despite more talented starting QB.
Rush yards per attempt: has improved by .35 yards per attempt
Pass yards per attempt: has improved by .28 yards per attempt, and is our 3rd best average in last 10 seasons.
Total Offense: has improved by 2 yards a game from last season’s 2nd to last effort.
Average yards per play: improved by .253 yards this season
Kickoff return average: 2nd to worst in past 10 years. Down almost 2 yards from last year.
Punt return average: has declined this season by 4.2 yards per attempt
Punt average distance: Oshendorf has the highest average in the past 10 years by over 4 yards!
Penalties: This year’s team is our worst penalized team in the past 10 years and last year’s team was the 2nd most penalized team.
Time of Possession: in line with previous season averages. 13 seconds longer than last season
3rd Down %: the past two seasons have been our worst 2 conversion rates, with this season being the worst by 5%.
Sacks Against per game: last season was our worst and this season has improved by 0.57 per game
RZ Scoring %: this has been our best scoring percentage in the past 10 years, however, it’s been our worst number of opportunities per game in the red zone. Last season was our worst scoring %.
Turnovers per game : This season we’ve had the 3rd fewest turnovers of any team in the past 10 years.
Turnover margin: this season is our worst turnover margin at -0.9 and last season was our 2nd worst. Why the fewest turnovers, but highest margin? Lack of defensive takeaways.
Opponents yards and opponents points per game: We’ve improved from our worst season last year (9th) to 6th this year in both categories.
Opponents 3rd down conversion %: 41.6% this year is up one notch from last year, but still in bottom 3 of last 10 years.
Home winning %: this year’s 33% winning percentage at the Joe is the worst in the past 10 years and a significant departure from the 70% home winning percentage since joining FBS.
Strength of Schedule: this season our SOS is 120 and last year was 124. Quite a departure from 2014’s 67th.
Overall: Compiling all the numbers, we have improved from our overall worst team last year to 7th out of 9 this season, but this is largely due to slight defensive improvements (from the worst defense last year), our best punter since Ryan Allen, low number of red zone trips, improved pass protection, and better QB play resulting in increased yards per attempt and decreased turnovers. Our offense has become all too dependent on the home-run ball and has consistently demonstrated an inability to string together sustained drives as indicated by our abysmal 3rd down conversion percentage of 31.9%. Our defense is not creating takeaways and allowing opponents a nearly 42% 3rd down conversion rate. Despite some statistical improvements made, the most important statistics of all, wins and points scored haven’t improved and are at decade lows.
Scoring: This year’s offense averages the least points of any team in the past 10 years at 26.73.
First Downs per game: 2nd fewest first downs this season. Last season was the fewest.
Rushing yards per game: has improved by 7.1 per game from last year, but is still 58 yards less than our best season average in 2015.
Pass yards per game: has decreased by 5 yards from last season despite more talented starting QB.
Rush yards per attempt: has improved by .35 yards per attempt
Pass yards per attempt: has improved by .28 yards per attempt, and is our 3rd best average in last 10 seasons.
Total Offense: has improved by 2 yards a game from last season’s 2nd to last effort.
Average yards per play: improved by .253 yards this season
Kickoff return average: 2nd to worst in past 10 years. Down almost 2 yards from last year.
Punt return average: has declined this season by 4.2 yards per attempt
Punt average distance: Oshendorf has the highest average in the past 10 years by over 4 yards!
Penalties: This year’s team is our worst penalized team in the past 10 years and last year’s team was the 2nd most penalized team.
Time of Possession: in line with previous season averages. 13 seconds longer than last season
3rd Down %: the past two seasons have been our worst 2 conversion rates, with this season being the worst by 5%.
Sacks Against per game: last season was our worst and this season has improved by 0.57 per game
RZ Scoring %: this has been our best scoring percentage in the past 10 years, however, it’s been our worst number of opportunities per game in the red zone. Last season was our worst scoring %.
Turnovers per game : This season we’ve had the 3rd fewest turnovers of any team in the past 10 years.
Turnover margin: this season is our worst turnover margin at -0.9 and last season was our 2nd worst. Why the fewest turnovers, but highest margin? Lack of defensive takeaways.
Opponents yards and opponents points per game: We’ve improved from our worst season last year (9th) to 6th this year in both categories.
Opponents 3rd down conversion %: 41.6% this year is up one notch from last year, but still in bottom 3 of last 10 years.
Home winning %: this year’s 33% winning percentage at the Joe is the worst in the past 10 years and a significant departure from the 70% home winning percentage since joining FBS.
Strength of Schedule: this season our SOS is 120 and last year was 124. Quite a departure from 2014’s 67th.
Overall: Compiling all the numbers, we have improved from our overall worst team last year to 7th out of 9 this season, but this is largely due to slight defensive improvements (from the worst defense last year), our best punter since Ryan Allen, low number of red zone trips, improved pass protection, and better QB play resulting in increased yards per attempt and decreased turnovers. Our offense has become all too dependent on the home-run ball and has consistently demonstrated an inability to string together sustained drives as indicated by our abysmal 3rd down conversion percentage of 31.9%. Our defense is not creating takeaways and allowing opponents a nearly 42% 3rd down conversion rate. Despite some statistical improvements made, the most important statistics of all, wins and points scored haven’t improved and are at decade lows.
