(warning: conference realignment has driven me completely off the rails and I am insane)
Pulling this out from the main thread. Wanted to poke at what partnering with a sports betting partner COULD look like for the new CUSA. Because I think this is a pretty fascinating thing and a wide open book.
(warning 2: many of these numbers are completely made up, but I don't think the absolutes matter so much as the percentages)
Let's say that CUSA (w/ a rebrand) were to partner with Barstool, BetMGM or DraftKings. For this example, we pick Barstool.
Barstool and CUSA then enter into a joint venture. A third partner (the media provider, let's say Sinclair) could also be a part of this, or alternately Barstool could elect to host the games natively on their own platform.
CUSA brings the teams and local production
Barstool brings the gambling platform and heavy promotion
Sinclair brings the back end production and heavy promotion
Assume a 40/40/20 CUSA/Barstool/Sinclair revenue split in this arrangement (or a 40/60 CUSA/Barstool split in the arrangement where Barstool does production in-house).
The product is an immersive betting experience imbedded within the game presentation. Live betting, bet-focused commentary, live statistical tracking, and player-specific and play-specific betting options. Includes a Saturday morning preshow, with three Saturday games (11:00/3:00/7:00) and a Thursday night game of the week. It also includes basketball.
With 9 teams playing 8 games, this is 72 total conference football games.
(here is where significant assumptions come into play, but bear with me because this is more about the business model than the specific numbers)
Let's assume that there is $1 million dollars of total action per game. That might sound high, but remember this is the only truly immersive betting experience in town for college football and is heavily promoted through Barstool's network. I actually think the estimate could be LOW (Barstool has 3.1M followers, Portnoy 2.7M).
At 72 games, that is $72 million of total action. Let's take the standard 9% house juice per bet and call it a net profit of ~$6.5M.
CUSA's 40% cut comes out to $2.6 million. Divided by 9 teams, is ~$300k / team.
Then there's basketball, totaling 144 games if each team plays the 8 others home and away. I won't go into specifics there, but you get the idea.
So what's this result in?
I'd pitch a downside guarantee of $500k per CUSA school per year, via a $4.5 total annual investment by Barstool. If revenue is low, Barstool loses but the CUSA teams get their $500k. If you hit on the upside, well...
$500k may seem low, but:
1) I don't think it's that low compared to the present when you consider that this is pure money-in-pocket, with none of the "TV rights money actually stays at ESPN to produce the games" stuff
2) Along with this, you are getting MASSIVE advertising through a giant (and growing) national network, and your brand is out there like never, ever before. What's that worth?
3) This is the downside. If this takes off and that $1 million / game action estimate blows up, this thing goes viral and revenue starts multiplying, who knows where it could go.
I know that I am certifiably insane about this stuff, but you gotta put a business case around this and seriously consider it.
Pulling this out from the main thread. Wanted to poke at what partnering with a sports betting partner COULD look like for the new CUSA. Because I think this is a pretty fascinating thing and a wide open book.
(warning 2: many of these numbers are completely made up, but I don't think the absolutes matter so much as the percentages)
Let's say that CUSA (w/ a rebrand) were to partner with Barstool, BetMGM or DraftKings. For this example, we pick Barstool.
Barstool and CUSA then enter into a joint venture. A third partner (the media provider, let's say Sinclair) could also be a part of this, or alternately Barstool could elect to host the games natively on their own platform.
CUSA brings the teams and local production
Barstool brings the gambling platform and heavy promotion
Sinclair brings the back end production and heavy promotion
Assume a 40/40/20 CUSA/Barstool/Sinclair revenue split in this arrangement (or a 40/60 CUSA/Barstool split in the arrangement where Barstool does production in-house).
The product is an immersive betting experience imbedded within the game presentation. Live betting, bet-focused commentary, live statistical tracking, and player-specific and play-specific betting options. Includes a Saturday morning preshow, with three Saturday games (11:00/3:00/7:00) and a Thursday night game of the week. It also includes basketball.
With 9 teams playing 8 games, this is 72 total conference football games.
(here is where significant assumptions come into play, but bear with me because this is more about the business model than the specific numbers)
Let's assume that there is $1 million dollars of total action per game. That might sound high, but remember this is the only truly immersive betting experience in town for college football and is heavily promoted through Barstool's network. I actually think the estimate could be LOW (Barstool has 3.1M followers, Portnoy 2.7M).
At 72 games, that is $72 million of total action. Let's take the standard 9% house juice per bet and call it a net profit of ~$6.5M.
CUSA's 40% cut comes out to $2.6 million. Divided by 9 teams, is ~$300k / team.
Then there's basketball, totaling 144 games if each team plays the 8 others home and away. I won't go into specifics there, but you get the idea.
So what's this result in?
I'd pitch a downside guarantee of $500k per CUSA school per year, via a $4.5 total annual investment by Barstool. If revenue is low, Barstool loses but the CUSA teams get their $500k. If you hit on the upside, well...
$500k may seem low, but:
1) I don't think it's that low compared to the present when you consider that this is pure money-in-pocket, with none of the "TV rights money actually stays at ESPN to produce the games" stuff
2) Along with this, you are getting MASSIVE advertising through a giant (and growing) national network, and your brand is out there like never, ever before. What's that worth?
3) This is the downside. If this takes off and that $1 million / game action estimate blows up, this thing goes viral and revenue starts multiplying, who knows where it could go.
I know that I am certifiably insane about this stuff, but you gotta put a business case around this and seriously consider it.
