On August 14,2024, Matt Belinson of the Ruston Daily Leader published a one-on-one conversation with Ryan Ivey. Several direct quotes from this interview have been included for some context and analysis in this “State of the Louisiana Tech Football Program” address.
Ivey admits that college football is “ultimately…a results-oriented business.” So, let’s take all the emotion of it and talk facts.
Sonny Cumbie enters Saturday’s contest with the 2nd worst “results” of any still employed coach hired in the 2021 cycle with a record of 10-25 only behind Akron’s Joe Morehead, who is himself on a blazing hot seat. In fact, of the 28 coaches hired that year, Cumbie is only 1 of 5 coaches still employed who hasn’t taken their team to a postseason bowl. 19 of the 28 coaches have their team with a winning record in year 3.
When analyzing the football program, Ivey “want[ed] to make sure we’re in games, that we’ve got a chance to win games in the fourth quarter. I think when you think about the opportunities of good programs, they find ways at the end of games to come out on top.” In reality, we’ve seen exactly the opposite this season highlighted by 3 overtime losses. So, by this standard, the program is not good.
Ivey expected that “we can win seven games this year. I think our schedule sets up well for us.” In reality, 4 or 5 wins will be the final tally.
His final marker for success for “right now, I’d tell you certainly need to be competing for bowl games and have a chance to participate in bowl games and have a chance to have some postseason play.” This will be the 3rd of 3rd season without a bowl game in Cumbie’s tenure.
So, are we making progress in any other tangible ways? Here’s a look at statistics for this season and how they compare to the past 10 full seasons of reference. Keep in mind that Cumbie is largely responsible for the offense.
Scoring: 21.18. Worst scoring average of any team in past 10 years and 4.5 points less than Cumbie’s previous best season.
First Downs per game: 17.54. Least number of first downs by over 2 per game.
Rushing yards per game: 106.5. Worst average by over 15 yards.
Pass yards per game: 228.4. Worst average by over 20 yards.
Rush yards per attempt: 2.8 yards/attempt. Yep, you guessed it. Last again.
Pass yards per attempt: 7.1. 2nd worst average
Total Offense: 334.8. Worst by over 45 yards per game.
Average yards per play: 4.8. First time we’ve averaged less than 5.4.
Kickoff return average: 24.86. Thank you DGT. 2nd best average in last 10 seasons.
Punt return average: 12.67. Surprisingly, our best average in 10 seasons.
Punt average distance: 39.16. Over 5 yards less than last season.
Penalties: 5.36/game. However, average penalty has been 9.45 yards.
Time of Possession: 31:51. Highest TOP of any season.
3rd Down %: 39.43%. Cumbie’s best yet, but he’s had 7th, 9th, and 10th worst of the last 10 seasons.
4th Down %: 34.78%. Worst % in last 10 seasons
Sacks Against per game: 1.72. 3rd fewest sacks per game
Red Zone Scoring %: 71%. Worst RZ conversion percentage in last 10 seasons
Turnovers per game : 1.72. Increased from last season.
Turnover margin: Cumbie’s 3 seasons are our worst 3 seasons in this category
Opponents yards and opponents points per game: 316.1/22.36. These are the BEST numbers in the past 10 seasons. Thanks JJ!
Opponents 3rd down conversion %: 33.77%. Once again, our best percentage yet.
Strength of Schedule: 127th. Worst SOS of any season.
Overall: If we were to sum this season up, we got the ball in the best starting position on the field we have gotten it due to our special teams returners. Our defense was the best we’ve had in the past 10 years. However, our offense was by far the statistically worst team in the past 10 years, and it’s not even close. In fact, it ranked 9th or 10th in 11/15 statistical categories analyzed despite having possession of the ball for longer than any of the past 10 seasons. All of this was “accomplished” while playing the 9th worst strength of schedule of any FBS team.
In Ivey’s own words at his hiring press conference, “We have the ability, opportunity, and responsibility to dream big, bold, dreams, and we must not settle for anything less. Now is the time to raise the bar for Louisiana Tech athletics.”
This season has failed all evaluation metrics and pre-season expectations established by the AD. The case for change has never been stronger. As the highest paid employee of Louisiana Tech University, Cumbie hasn’t met the standards of the position. Louisiana Tech football has to be restored to competitive, championship levels regardless of the cost. To not do so is accepting mediocrity.
Ivey admits that college football is “ultimately…a results-oriented business.” So, let’s take all the emotion of it and talk facts.
Sonny Cumbie enters Saturday’s contest with the 2nd worst “results” of any still employed coach hired in the 2021 cycle with a record of 10-25 only behind Akron’s Joe Morehead, who is himself on a blazing hot seat. In fact, of the 28 coaches hired that year, Cumbie is only 1 of 5 coaches still employed who hasn’t taken their team to a postseason bowl. 19 of the 28 coaches have their team with a winning record in year 3.
When analyzing the football program, Ivey “want[ed] to make sure we’re in games, that we’ve got a chance to win games in the fourth quarter. I think when you think about the opportunities of good programs, they find ways at the end of games to come out on top.” In reality, we’ve seen exactly the opposite this season highlighted by 3 overtime losses. So, by this standard, the program is not good.
Ivey expected that “we can win seven games this year. I think our schedule sets up well for us.” In reality, 4 or 5 wins will be the final tally.
His final marker for success for “right now, I’d tell you certainly need to be competing for bowl games and have a chance to participate in bowl games and have a chance to have some postseason play.” This will be the 3rd of 3rd season without a bowl game in Cumbie’s tenure.
So, are we making progress in any other tangible ways? Here’s a look at statistics for this season and how they compare to the past 10 full seasons of reference. Keep in mind that Cumbie is largely responsible for the offense.
Scoring: 21.18. Worst scoring average of any team in past 10 years and 4.5 points less than Cumbie’s previous best season.
First Downs per game: 17.54. Least number of first downs by over 2 per game.
Rushing yards per game: 106.5. Worst average by over 15 yards.
Pass yards per game: 228.4. Worst average by over 20 yards.
Rush yards per attempt: 2.8 yards/attempt. Yep, you guessed it. Last again.
Pass yards per attempt: 7.1. 2nd worst average
Total Offense: 334.8. Worst by over 45 yards per game.
Average yards per play: 4.8. First time we’ve averaged less than 5.4.
Kickoff return average: 24.86. Thank you DGT. 2nd best average in last 10 seasons.
Punt return average: 12.67. Surprisingly, our best average in 10 seasons.
Punt average distance: 39.16. Over 5 yards less than last season.
Penalties: 5.36/game. However, average penalty has been 9.45 yards.
Time of Possession: 31:51. Highest TOP of any season.
3rd Down %: 39.43%. Cumbie’s best yet, but he’s had 7th, 9th, and 10th worst of the last 10 seasons.
4th Down %: 34.78%. Worst % in last 10 seasons
Sacks Against per game: 1.72. 3rd fewest sacks per game
Red Zone Scoring %: 71%. Worst RZ conversion percentage in last 10 seasons
Turnovers per game : 1.72. Increased from last season.
Turnover margin: Cumbie’s 3 seasons are our worst 3 seasons in this category
Opponents yards and opponents points per game: 316.1/22.36. These are the BEST numbers in the past 10 seasons. Thanks JJ!
Opponents 3rd down conversion %: 33.77%. Once again, our best percentage yet.
Strength of Schedule: 127th. Worst SOS of any season.
Overall: If we were to sum this season up, we got the ball in the best starting position on the field we have gotten it due to our special teams returners. Our defense was the best we’ve had in the past 10 years. However, our offense was by far the statistically worst team in the past 10 years, and it’s not even close. In fact, it ranked 9th or 10th in 11/15 statistical categories analyzed despite having possession of the ball for longer than any of the past 10 seasons. All of this was “accomplished” while playing the 9th worst strength of schedule of any FBS team.
In Ivey’s own words at his hiring press conference, “We have the ability, opportunity, and responsibility to dream big, bold, dreams, and we must not settle for anything less. Now is the time to raise the bar for Louisiana Tech athletics.”
This season has failed all evaluation metrics and pre-season expectations established by the AD. The case for change has never been stronger. As the highest paid employee of Louisiana Tech University, Cumbie hasn’t met the standards of the position. Louisiana Tech football has to be restored to competitive, championship levels regardless of the cost. To not do so is accepting mediocrity.
